Browsing by Author "Akkaya, Aysen D."

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Adaptive Estimation of Autoregression Models Under Long-Tailed Symmetric Distribution
(Taylor & Francis inc, 2024) Yentur, Begum; Akkaya, Aysen D.; Bayrak, Ozlem Turker
Non-normal innovations in autoregression models frequently occur in practice. In this situation, least squares (LS) estimators are known to be inefficient and non-robust, and maximum likelihood (ML) estimators need to be solved numerically, which becomes a daunting task. In the literature, the modified maximum likelihood (MML) estimation technique has been proposed to obtain the estimators of model parameters. While an explicit solution can be found via this method, the requirement of knowing the shape parameter becomes a drawback, especially in machine learning. In this study, we use the adaptive modified maximum likelihood (AMML) methodology, which combines the MML with Huber's M-estimation so that this assumption is relaxed. The performance of the method in terms of efficiency and robustness is analyzed via simulation and compared to LS, MML and ML estimates that are obtained numerically via the Expectation Conditional Maximization (ECM) algorithm. Test statistics are proposed for the crucial parameters of the model. The results show that the AMML estimators are preferable in most of the settings according to the mean squared error (MSE) criterion and the test statistics based on AMML method are more robust than the others. Furthermore, both real life and synthetic data examples are given.
Citation - WoS: 8
Citation - Scopus: 12
Estimating Parameters of a Multiple Autoregressive Model by the Modified Maximum Likelihood Method
(Elsevier, 2010) Bayrak, Oezlem Tuerker; Akkaya, Aysen D.
We consider a multiple autoregressive model with non-normal error distributions, the latter being more prevalent in practice than the usually assumed normal distribution. Since the maximum likelihood equations have convergence problems (Puthenpura and Sinha, 1986) [11], we work Out modified maximum likelihood equations by expressing the maximum likelihood equations in terms of ordered residuals and linearizing intractable nonlinear functions (Tiku and Suresh, 1992) [8]. The solutions, called modified maximum estimators, are explicit functions of sample observations and therefore easy to compute. They are under some very general regularity conditions asymptotically unbiased and efficient (Vaughan and Tiku, 2000) [4]. We show that for small sample sizes, they have negligible bias and are considerably more efficient than the traditional least Squares estimators. We show that Our estimators are robust to plausible deviations from an assumed distribution and are therefore enormously advantageous as compared to the least squares estimation. We give a real life example. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.