İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi

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Analysis of distinct asymmetries in financial integration‐growth nexus for industrial, emerging and developing countries
(2020) Yolcu Karadam, Duygu; Öcal, Nadir
This paper examines the threshold conditions in financial integration and growth relationship for a large set of threshold variables and different income group of countries employing Panel Smooth Transition Regression Models. Except developing countries, our findings strongly indicate nonlinear dynamics and imply that the impact of financial integration on growth is asymmetric depending on a number of indicators such as countries' degree of institutional quality, financial sector development, trade openness, budget deficit, inflation volatility and the level of financial integration. Our results show that these threshold effects substantially differ for emerging and industrial countries. As far as whole set of countries is concerned, our findings imply that countries having developed financial systems, qualified institutions and stable macroeconomic environment benefit from financial integration. Moreover, threshold effects are stronger and different for emerging countries compared to the industrial countries. Unlike emerging economies, higher levels of financial integration and trade openness decrease benefits from financial openness for the industrial countries. Besides, high fiscal deficit has more pronounced negative effect on the growth of the industrialized countries compared to emerging economies and other indicators.
Citation - WoS: 4
Citation - Scopus: 5
Analysis of Distinct Asymmetries in Financialintegration-Growthnexus for Industrial, Emerging and Developing Countries
(Wiley, 2022) Ocal, Nadir; Yolcu Karadam, Duygu
This paper examines the threshold conditions in financial integration and growth relationship for a large set of threshold variables and different income group of countries employing Panel Smooth Transition Regression Models. Except developing countries, our findings strongly indicate nonlinear dynamics and imply that the impact of financial integration on growth is asymmetric depending on a number of indicators such as countries' degree of institutional quality, financial sector development, trade openness, budget deficit, inflation volatility and the level of financial integration. Our results show that these threshold effects substantially differ for emerging and industrial countries. As far as whole set of countries is concerned, our findings imply that countries having developed financial systems, qualified institutions and stable macroeconomic environment benefit from financial integration. Moreover, threshold effects are stronger and different for emerging countries compared to the industrial countries. Unlike emerging economies, higher levels of financial integration and trade openness decrease benefits from financial openness for the industrial countries. Besides, high fiscal deficit has more pronounced negative effect on the growth of the industrialized countries compared to emerging economies and other indicators.
Citation - WoS: 8
Citation - Scopus: 10
Confidence-Based Reasoning in Stochastic Constraint Programming
(Elsevier, 2015) Rossi, Roberto; Hnich, Brahim; Tarim, S. Armagan; Prestvvich, Steven
In this work we introduce a novel approach, based on sampling, for finding assignments that are likely to be solutions to stochastic constraint satisfaction problems and constraint optimisation problems. Our approach reduces the size of the original problem being analysed; by solving this reduced problem, with a given confidence probability, we obtain assignments that satisfy the chance constraints in the original model within prescribed error tolerance thresholds. To achieve this, we blend concepts from stochastic constraint programming and statistics. We discuss both exact and approximate variants of our method. The framework we introduce can be immediately employed in concert with existing approaches for solving stochastic constraint programs. A thorough computational study on a number of stochastic combinatorial optimisation problems demonstrates the effectiveness of our approach. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Citation - WoS: 8
Citation - Scopus: 6
Distinct Asymmetric Effects of Military Spending on Economic Growth for Different Income Groups of Countries
(Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2023) Ocal, Nadir; Yildirim, Julide; Karadam, Duygu Yolcu
Although possible asymmetries for univariate and multivariate dynamics have been the focus of interest in many areas of economic explorations, it seems that most of the research on military expenditure - economic growth nexus has tended to assume linear relationships. This paper aims to examine possible nonlinearities in military expenditure-economic growth nexus employing data for a sample of 103 countries covering the 1988-2019 period. For this purpose, Panel Smooth Transition Regression, PSTR, models are estimated not only for all countries' sample but also for low income, middle income, and high-income countries' subsamples to reveal possible distinct asymmetric relationships for country groups with different income levels. Empirical results for the whole sample, low income and middle income groups indicate that military expenditure not only governs the regime change, but also low and high levels of military expenditure have distinctive and rising negative effects on economic growth with dissimilar threshold effects. Moreover, empirical findings also indicate that net arms exports govern regime change for high income countries, and as net arms exports rise, the negative impacts of military expenditure on economic growth become deeper.
Does workplace envy always have detrimental consequences in organizations? A study of public and private sector employees
(2020) Şener, İrge; Karabay, Melisa; Elçi, Meral; Erman, Halil
Purpose Based on the situational approach for envy, the purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of two-dimensional workplace envy (being envied and envying others) on the task and contextual performance of employees working in either private or public sector organizations. Design/methodology/approach This study was conducted on survey data collected from 988 private sector employees and 530 employees from the public sector employed in Istanbul. Following a quantitative empirical design, structural equation modeling was used to test the hypotheses. Findings The study results revealed that envying-others dimension has a significant negative effect on both task performance and contextual performance. In addition, the findings indicate more envious feelings of private sector employees than public sector employees. For public sector employees, male participants were found to envy others more than females. Research limitations/implications In addition to the contributions, this study has its limitations. First, although the study was carried out with a comprehensive sample, it is limited to the views of 1,518 employees in Istanbul and is a cross-sectional study. Also, employee performance is evaluated through self-reporting, which forms another limitation; it could have been more reliable for the supervisors to assess their subordinates' performance. Practical implications Apart from scholars, our findings have implications for practitioners. Feelings such as envy that comes with a sense of competition can create an environment that stimulates people, motivates them to work, can make them productive and can also cause an ultimately destructive situation. This makes it critical to manage envy in the workplace. Though there may be facilitators behind it, one crucial factor that fuels envy in the workplace is the lack of fair human resources policies and systems. Still, human resources management is undeveloped in most public organizations. With effective human resources management, there may be some roadmaps for managers to dissolve conflicts arising from envy. First, it is imperative to have systems that will separate the employee from the others, which everyone will accept, strengthening the feelings of justice among employees. Envy often occurs following a social comparison. Management can implement an incentive system that supports employee collaboration and avoid nepotism. Especially in private organizations where the competition is more among employees, managers should give more attention to understand their subordinates' feelings. The managers' attention to expressing their feelings toward their subordinates could establish an equal distance within the workplace. In this sense, language selection is critical, and managers should be mindful of linguistic triggers. Managers should not avoid giving both positive and negative feedback to their employees. Unwarranted and unsystematic reward and/or punishment systems, made with the good intentions of increasing competition, can trigger envy. Finally, managers should implement an open-door policy and open communication that will encourage all team members to be transparent to each other. Originality/value The study was based on a rationale that envy has detrimental workplace outcomes that lead to low task and contextual performance. Although there exists a recent interest for examining the relation between workplace envy and employee performance, based on being envied and envying others dimensions, these studies are limited. This study focuses on these dimensions and performance relations, and it also provides a comparative outlook for public and private sector employees in Turkey in terms of workplace envy.
Citation - WoS: 5
Citation - Scopus: 6
Does Workplace Envy Always Have Detrimental Consequences in Organizations? a Study of Public and Private Sector Employees
(Emerald Group Publishing Ltd, 2022) Karabay, Melisa Erdilek; Elci, Meral; Erman, Halil; Sener, Irge
Purpose Based on the situational approach for envy, the purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of two-dimensional workplace envy (being envied and envying others) on the task and contextual performance of employees working in either private or public sector organizations. Design/methodology/approach This study was conducted on survey data collected from 988 private sector employees and 530 employees from the public sector employed in Istanbul. Following a quantitative empirical design, structural equation modeling was used to test the hypotheses. Findings The study results revealed that envying-others dimension has a significant negative effect on both task performance and contextual performance. In addition, the findings indicate more envious feelings of private sector employees than public sector employees. For public sector employees, male participants were found to envy others more than females. Research limitations/implications In addition to the contributions, this study has its limitations. First, although the study was carried out with a comprehensive sample, it is limited to the views of 1,518 employees in Istanbul and is a cross-sectional study. Also, employee performance is evaluated through self-reporting, which forms another limitation; it could have been more reliable for the supervisors to assess their subordinates' performance. Practical implications Apart from scholars, our findings have implications for practitioners. Feelings such as envy that comes with a sense of competition can create an environment that stimulates people, motivates them to work, can make them productive and can also cause an ultimately destructive situation. This makes it critical to manage envy in the workplace. Though there may be facilitators behind it, one crucial factor that fuels envy in the workplace is the lack of fair human resources policies and systems. Still, human resources management is undeveloped in most public organizations. With effective human resources management, there may be some roadmaps for managers to dissolve conflicts arising from envy. First, it is imperative to have systems that will separate the employee from the others, which everyone will accept, strengthening the feelings of justice among employees. Envy often occurs following a social comparison. Management can implement an incentive system that supports employee collaboration and avoid nepotism. Especially in private organizations where the competition is more among employees, managers should give more attention to understand their subordinates' feelings. The managers' attention to expressing their feelings toward their subordinates could establish an equal distance within the workplace. In this sense, language selection is critical, and managers should be mindful of linguistic triggers. Managers should not avoid giving both positive and negative feedback to their employees. Unwarranted and unsystematic reward and/or punishment systems, made with the good intentions of increasing competition, can trigger envy. Finally, managers should implement an open-door policy and open communication that will encourage all team members to be transparent to each other. Originality/value The study was based on a rationale that envy has detrimental workplace outcomes that lead to low task and contextual performance. Although there exists a recent interest for examining the relation between workplace envy and employee performance, based on being envied and envying others dimensions, these studies are limited. This study focuses on these dimensions and performance relations, and it also provides a comparative outlook for public and private sector employees in Turkey in terms of workplace envy.
Citation - WoS: 37
Citation - Scopus: 45
Dynamic Linkages Between Renewable Energy, Carbon Emissions and Economic Growth Through Nonlinear Ardl Approach: Evidence From Iran
(Public Library Science, 2021) Karimi, M. S.; Ahmad, S.; Karamelikli, H.; Dinc, D. T.; Khan, Y. A.; Sabzehei, M. T.; Abbas, S. Z.
This study examines the relationship between economic growth, renewable energy consumption, and carbon emissions in Iran between 1975-2017, and the bounds testing approach to cointegration and the asymmetric method was used in this study. The results reveal that in the long run increase in renewable energy consumption and CO2 emissions causes an increase in real GDP per capita. Meanwhile, the decrease in renewable energy has the same effect, but GDP per capita reacts more strongly to the rise in renewable energy than the decline. Besides, in the long run, a reduction of CO2 emissions has an insignificant impact on GDP per capita. Furthermore, the results from asymmetric tests suggest that reducing CO2 emissions and renewable energy consumption do not have an essential role in decreasing growth in the short run. In contrast, an increase in renewable energy consumption and CO2 emissions do contribute to boosting the growth. These results may be attributable to the less renewable energy in the energy portfolio of Iran. Additionally, the coefficients on capital and labor are statistically significant, and we discuss the economic implications of the results and propose specific policy recommendations.
Citation - WoS: 18
Citation - Scopus: 18
Estimation in Bivariate Nonnormal Distributions With Stochastic Variance Functions
(Elsevier Science Bv, 2008) Tiku, Moti L.; Islam, M. Qamarul; Sazak, Hakan S.
Data sets in numerous areas of application can be modelled by symmetric bivariate nonnormal distributions. Estimation of parameters in such situations is considered when the mean and variance of one variable is a linear and a positive function of the other variable. This is typically true of bivariate t distribution. The resulting estimators are found to be remarkably efficient. Hypothesis testing procedures are developed and shown to be robust and powerful. Real life examples are given. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Citation - WoS: 12
Citation - Scopus: 16
Exchange Rate Risk and International Trade: the Role of Third Country Effect
(Elsevier Science Sa, 2018) Tunc, Cengiz; Solakoglu, M. Nihat; Babuscu, Senol; Hazar, Adalet
Using the recently launched Exporter Dynamics Database of the World Bank, this paper empirically investigates the role of external exchange rate risk (third-country effect) on trade flows between countries. We find a strong positive influence of external exchange rate risk on exports to a specific destination. However, the effect is more observable in advanced destination countries, countries with low bilateral exchange rate volatility in comparison to external exchange rate volatility, and countries in which export is concentrated among a small number of firms. (C)2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Citation - WoS: 6
Citation - Scopus: 5
Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade: External Exchange Rate Volatility Matters
(World Scientific Publ Co Pte Ltd, 2020) Babuscu, Senol; Hazar, Adalet; Solakoglu, M. Nihat; Tunc, Cengiz
We investigate the role of external exchange rate volatility in export in addition to the effect of bilateral exchange rate volatility using country-, sector-, and destination-specific detailed export data of the World Bank Exporter Dynamics Database. The results show that while the bilateral exchange rate volatility has a depressing effect on export, the external exchange rate volatility generates trade-promoting effect on export. However, the magnitude of the effect depends on trade intensity between countries. Furthermore, while the role of external exchange rate volatility diminished after the Global Financial Crisis, the effect of its volatility has become larger. Finally, external exchange rate volatility has a larger trade-promoting effect on export in the presence of high volatilities than the effect in the presence of low volatilities.
Citation - WoS: 20
Citation - Scopus: 22
An Extended Mixed-Integer Programming Formulation and Dynamic Cut Generation Approach for the Stochastic Lot-Sizing Problem
(informs, 2018) Tunc, Huseyin; Kilic, Onur A.; Tarim, S. Armagan; Rossi, Roberto
We present an extended mixed-integer programming formulation of the stochastic lot-sizing problem for the static-dynamic uncertainty strategy. The proposed formulation is significantly more time efficient as compared to existing formulations in the literature and it can handle variants of the stochastic lot-sizing problem characterized by penalty costs and service level constraints, as well as backorders and lost sales. Also, besides being capable of working with a predefined piecewise linear approximation of the cost function-as is the case in earlier formulations-it has the functionality of finding an optimal cost solution with an arbitrary level of precision by means of a novel dynamic cut generation approach.
Citation - WoS: 3
Citation - Scopus: 3
A Feminist Reading of Turkish Foreign Policy and the S-400 Crisis
(Sage Publications inc, 2021) Akca Atac, C.
Hypermasculine hegemonic masculinities have become the norm to dominate the foreign policies all around the world. As the populist foreign-policy visions, the byproducts of androcentric norm-creation, undermine the established rules for peace, diplomacy and co-existence in the international system, other experiences have faded away from the narratives that have defined and contributed to foreign policies. The accelerating urgency of the national security agendas of the hypermasculine states seek to cancel feminist definitions, practices and theories for the sake of physical force and state control. Nevertheless, more than any other period in history, it is these conflicting times that necessitate Cynthia Enloe's 'curious feminist' questions the most. Turkish foreign policy of the last decade has become a quintessential example of hypermasculine hegemonic masculinity, especially within the context of the S-400 crisis with the US, NATO and Russia; its feminist critics are distressingly rare. This paper aims to offer an alternative reading of Turkey's S-400 saga from a feminist perspective to contribute a Turkish case to feminist International Relations. First a definition of feminist International Relations will be provided. Then, the hypermasculine character of the Turkish hegemonic masculinity and its reflection on the current Turkish foreign policy will be analyzed. Lastly, the S-400 crisis of Turkey's decision to buy Russian defense missiles as a NATO member will be examined.
Citation - WoS: 4
Citation - Scopus: 4
Fixed Point Results Via Simulation Functions in the Context of Quasi-Metric Space
(Univ Nis, Fac Sci Math, 2018) Fulga, Andreea; Tas, Aysegul
In this paper, we investigate the existing non-unique fixed points of certain mappings, via simulation functions in the context of quasi-metric space. Our main results generalize and unify several existing results on the topic in the literature.
Citation - Scopus: 21
Forecasting Stock Market Volatility: Further International Evidence
(2006) Balaban, E.; Bayar, A.; Faff, R.W.
This paper evaluates the out-of-sample forecasting accuracy of eleven models for monthly volatility in fifteen stock markets. Volatility is defined as within-month standard deviation of continuously compounded daily returns on the stock market index of each country for the ten-year period 1988 to 1997. The first half of the sample is retained for the estimation of parameters while the second half is for the forecast period. The following models are employed: a random walk model, a historical mean model, moving average models, weighted moving average models, exponentially weighted moving average models, an exponential smoothing model, a regression model, an ARCH model, a GARCH model, a GJR-GARCH model, and an EGARCH model. First, standard (symmetric) loss functions are used to evaluate the performance of the competing models: mean absolute error, root mean squared error, and mean absolute percentage error. According to all of these standard loss functions, the exponential smoothing model provides superior forecasts of volatility. On the other hand, ARCH-based models generally prove to be the worst forecasting models. Asymmetric loss functions are employed to penalize under-/over-prediction. When under-predictions are penalized more heavily, ARCH-type models provide the best forecasts while the random walk is worst. However, when over-predictions of volatility are penalized more heavily, the exponential smoothing model performs best while the ARCH-type models are now universally found to be inferior forecasters.
Fractional Frequency Flexible Fourier Form to approximate smooth breaks in unit root testing
(2015) Omay, Tolga
In this study, a Fractional Frequency Flexible Fourier Form DF-type unit root test is proposed. The small sample properties of the proposed test are found to be better than that of the integer frequency counterpart. •Fractional Frequency Flexible Fourier Form-DF-type of unit root test is proposed.•The small sample properties of FFFFF-DF-type test are better than EL test.•FFFFF-DF-type test improves the empirical testing performance.•FFFFF-DF-type test prevents type two errors and over-filtration problems.
Citation - WoS: 91
Citation - Scopus: 87
Fractional Frequency Flexible Fourier Form To Approximate Smooth Breaks in Unit Root Testing
(Elsevier Science Sa, 2015) Omay, Tolga
In this study, a Fractional Frequency Flexible Fourier Form DF-type unit root test is proposed. The small sample properties of the proposed test are found to be better than that of the integer frequency counterpart. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Citation - WoS: 13
Citation - Scopus: 15
Import-Content of Exports and J-Curve Effect
(Routledge Journals, Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2010) Yazici, Mehmet; Klasra, Mushtaq Ahmad
This article investigates how the response to devaluation of trade balance is affected, compared to J-curve hypothesis, by the presence of imported inputs in the production of exports. Using first the Almon lag technique and then the cointegration and the generalized impulse response function analysis, the J-curve effect is examined in two sectors of Turkish economy (manufacturing and mining), which use imported inputs at different rates. Based on the data covering the period from the first quarter of 1986 to the third quarter of 1998, our results indicate that in neither sector J-curve exists and that the violation of the J-curve effect is more severe in the sector with higher import content.
Citation - WoS: 5
Citation - Scopus: 6
Knowledge-Induced Technological Change a Study Involving the Automobile Innovation in Malaysia With Layers of Techniques
(Emerald Group Publishing Ltd, 2006) Azid, Toseef; Klasra, Mushtaq; Choudhury, Masudul
Purpose - To apply the Tawhidi epistemology in the automobile industry as the paradigm of the Islamic socio-scientific order in terms of its inherent knowledge-centered worldview. Design/methodology/approach - The concepts of unity and unification of knowledge in a system-wide sense are analytically developed in the framework of shuratic process or equivalently as the interactive, integrative and evolutionary process-oriented methodology (IIE). Findings - The analytical conceptualization is derived in the light of Qur'anic rules (ahkam) and recommended that policies, programs and instruments would jointly promote the development of mutual profitability and address the social milieu as well. Research limitations/implications - Tawhidi unification methodology of extensive participation and linkage can be applied widely. Originality/value - Certain policy recommendations in the light of the shari'ah precepts of this case study can be made.
Citation - WoS: 12
Citation - Scopus: 16
Labor Mobility Across the Formal/Informal Divide in Turkey Evidence From Individual-Level Data
(Emerald Group Publishing Ltd, 2017) Acar, Elif Oznur; Tansel, Aysit
Purpose - This paper, the first one to use individual-level Turkish panel data, examines the labor market transitions in Turkey along the formal/informal employment divide. The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the limited body of empirical evidence available on mobility and informality in the Turkish labor market. Design/methodology/approach - Toward this end, the authors use Turkish income and Living Conditions Survey panel data for 2006, 2007, 2008 and 2009 to compute the Markov transition probabilities of individuals moving across six different labor market states: formal-salaried (FS), informal-salaried, formal self-employed, informal self-employed, unemployed and inactive. In order to examine the nature of mobility patterns in more detail, the authors then estimate six multinomial logit models individually for each transition adopting a number of individual and employment characteristics as explanatory variables. Findings - The authors find evidence that mobility patterns are fairly similar across different time spans, the probability of remaining in initial state is higher than the probability of transition into another state for all the labor market states, except for unemployment, there is only very limited mobility into the FS state. Gender, education and sector of economic activity are observed to display significant effects on mobility patterns. The results reveal several relationships between the covariates and likelihood of variant transitions. Research limitations/implications - This study provides a comprehensive and detailed diagnosis of the Turkish labor market. The market is observed to display a rather static structure throughout the period considered. The results indicate that a well recognition of underlying dynamics may help policy makers to produce various effective tools for addressing informality. Originality/value - First study to analyze labor market mobility across formal/informal sectors using newly available panel data.
Citation - WoS: 32
Citation - Scopus: 33
Lessons of Military Regimes and Democracy: the Turkish Case in a Comparative Perspective
(Sage Publications inc, 2005) Demirel, T
How the nature of an outgoing authoritarian regime affects the advent of a new democracy continues to be a matter of controversy. One line of argument states that in countries which experience repressive and discredited authoritarian regimes, political actors have come to better appreciate the virtues of democracy.(1) It is presumed that gross human-rights violations, widespread state-sponsored terror, and consequent fear and insecurity under military rule might result in attitudinal changes that favor democracy. Those who criticize the democratic regime for a slow decision-making process, or for failing to improve socioeconomic inequalities, for instance, might better understand the difference between military rule and democracy in terms of the protection of basic human rights. Similarly, disappointments caused by the military regimes in the economic and/or military spheres could shatter myths about the effectiveness of military rule or authoritarian decision-making processes. It might become clear, for instance, that the army's combat effectiveness is severely damaged under military dictatorships, or that military officers at the top might be as divided, inefficient, or corrupt as civilian politicians. Such value change, it is further assumed, helps the new democratic regime to withstand considerable strains because the alternative-authoritarian regression-is perceived to be even worse.(2) While not contradicting the idea that a repressive and/or discredited authoritarian regime might lead to a positive view of democracy, other scholars do not consider this factor as very significant. Juan Linz and Alfred Stephan, for instance, argued that the positive attitude toward democracy "as the best alternative for now and for the future, does not require a negative attitude toward the past."(3) Neither in cases of established democracies nor in recent transitions to democracy, they claim, can one find any strong evidence that rejection of the authoritarian past had taken place. Positive assessment of the past regime is not an obstacle to securing the loyalty of citizens to the democratic regime; one can prefer the democratic regime while also believing that an authoritarian regime had its own achievements. In the same vein, emphasizing new incentive structures that came into existence during the transition process as the most important variable affecting behavior of the elites, authors such as Guiseppe Di Palma and Adam Przeworski also came to similar conclusions.(4) This article highlights the point that the nature of an outgoing authoritarian regime has a significant impact on a new democracy. It attempts to do so through discussion of the Turkish case. Turkey's long experience with constitutional and representative government stretches back to the nineteenth century. It has maintained a more-or-less democratic system of government since its first transition to democracy in 1946, despite three military interventions (in 1960, 1971, and 1980). The complex interactions of various factors have helped the Turkish military to protect itself from the damaging consequences associated with military rule. The military interludes in Turkey (1960-61, 1971-73, 1980-83) have hardly been seen by a significant number of civilians as highly repressive, nor have they been conceived as failures in political, economic, or military terms. In all formal transitions, the military has hardly been compelled to exit from power. The thesis advanced here is that this particular experience of a military regime, of authoritarian interludes, has to be taken into account to understand the trials and tribulations of Turkish democracy. The positive evaluation of military rule was one reason why the political actors have found it difficult to regard a democratic regime as "the only game in town."(5) In other words, the Turkish experience has given rise to a conviction that the costs of abandoning democracy are not so high; therefore, in some cases, the military regime might be acceptable. This presumption has, in turn, weakened the civilian resolve to seek remedies within the democratic system. The military regime seemed to offer quick, clear-cut, and less costly solutions. The problem-solving capacity consideration that they might avoid the worst of what the others experienced, the idea that "it will not happen here," appears to have worked as a hindrance for learning in many settings. Few opponents of Allende who looked forward favorably to a military coup were able to foresee that a repressive regime was on its way given Chile's rather noninterventionist military tradition.(71) Civilians invoking a dictatorship generally consider that they might manipulate it, or minimize the possible costs. For these reasons, it would be misleading to talk about political learning as a spontaneous and natural process, or to condemn actors for failing to learn due largely to selfish short-sightedness or individual traits. One should also stress that some perceptions of military rule are the result of careful construction. Those who value democracy should not fail to recall the painful memories of the past; on the other hand, it would be inappropriate to attribute undue weight to an artful deception. If the real experience of the people has not made them receptive to recalling such collective memories, the whole effort might be destined to remain futile. A brief examination of military regimes and their impact on a change of values shows how complex the issues are, and how difficult it is to make straightforward inferences. A recognition of this complexity, however, does not change the fact that political learning, either through interaction or comparison, is critical for sustaining democracy.

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