Scopus İndeksli Yayınlar Koleksiyonu
Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12416/8651
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Article Citation - WoS: 33Citation - Scopus: 40A Novel R/S Fractal Analysis and Wavelet Entropy Characterization Approach for Robust Forecasting Based on Self-Similar Time Series Modeling(World Scientific Publ Co Pte Ltd, 2020) Baleanu, Dumitru; Karaca, YelizIt has become vital to effectively characterize the self-similar and regular patterns in time series marked by short-term and long-term memory in various fields in the ever-changing and complex global landscape. Within this framework, attempting to find solutions with adaptive mathematical models emerges as a major endeavor in economics whose complex systems and structures are generally volatile, vulnerable and vague. Thus, analysis of the dynamics of occurrence of time section accurately, efficiently and timely is at the forefront to perform forecasting of volatile states of an economic environment which is a complex system in itself since it includes interrelated elements interacting with one another. To manage data selection effectively and attain robust prediction, characterizing complexity and self-similarity is critical in financial decision-making. Our study aims to obtain analyzes based on two main approaches proposed related to seven recognized indexes belonging to prominent countries (DJI, FCHI, GDAXI, GSPC, GSTPE, N225 and Bitcoin index). The first approach includes the employment of Hurst exponent (HE) as calculated by Rescaled Range (R/S) fractal analysis and Wavelet Entropy (WE) in order to enhance the prediction accuracy in the long-term trend in the financial markets. The second approach includes Artificial Neural Network (ANN) algorithms application Feed forward back propagation (FFBP), Cascade Forward Back Propagation (CFBP) and Learning Vector Quantization (LVQ) algorithm for forecasting purposes. The following steps have been administered for the two aforementioned approaches: (i) HE and WE were applied. Consequently, new indicators were calculated for each index. By obtaining the indicators, the new dataset was formed and normalized by min-max normalization method' (ii) to form the forecasting model, ANN algorithms were applied on the datasets. Based on the experimental results, it has been demonstrated that the new dataset comprised of the HE and WE indicators had a critical and determining direction with a more accurate level of forecasting modeling by the ANN algorithms. Consequently, the proposed novel method with multifarious methodology illustrates a new frontier, which could be employed in the broad field of various applied sciences to analyze pressing real-world problems and propose optimal solutions for critical decision-making processes in nonlinear, complex and dynamic environments.Conference Object Citation - WoS: 13Citation - Scopus: 17An Overview of Revenue Management and Dynamic Pricing Models in Hotel Business(Edp Sciences S A, 2018) Bandalouski, Andrei M.; Kovalyov, Mikhail Y.; Pesch, Erwin; Tarim, S. ArmaganBasic concepts and brief description of revenue management models and decision tools in the hotel business are presented. An overview of the relevant literature on dynamic pricing, forecasting methods and optimization models is provided. The main ideas of the authors' customized revenue management method for the hotel business are presented.Conference Object Citation - WoS: 53Citation - Scopus: 56Fuzzy Prediction Strategies for Gene-Environment Networks - Fuzzy Regression Analysis for Two-Modal Regulatory Systems(Edp Sciences S A, 2016) Ozmen, Ayse; Weber, Gerhard-Wilhelm; Meyer-Nieberg, Silja; Defterli, Ozlem; Kropat, ErikTarget-environment networks provide a conceptual framework for the analysis and prediction of complex regulatory systems such as genetic networks, eco-finance networks or sensor-target assignments. These evolving networks consist of two major groups of entities that are interacting by unknown relationships. The structure and dynamics of the hidden regulatory system have to be revealed from uncertain measurement data. In this paper, the concept of fuzzy target-environment networks is introduced and various fuzzy possibilistic regression models are presented. The relation between the targets and/or environmental entities of the regulatory network is given in terms of a fuzzy model. The vagueness of the regulatory system results from the (unknown) fuzzy coefficients. For an identification of the fuzzy coefficients' shape, methods from fuzzy regression are adapted and made applicable to the bi-level situation of target-environment networks and uncertain data. Various shapes of fuzzy coefficients are considered and the control of outliers is discussed. A first numerical example is presented for purposes of illustration. The paper ends with a conclusion and an outlook to future studies.