İktisat Bölümü Yayın Koleksiyonu
Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12416/402
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Article Citation - Scopus: 2Exchange Rate and Turkish Agricultural Trade Balance With Eu (15)(2012) Yazici, M.; Yazıcı, Mehmet; Islam, M.Q.; İktisatThis paper investigates the short-run and long-run impact of exchange rate on the trade balance of Turkish Agriculture with EU (15) countries. The bounds testing approach to the cointegration and the error correction modeling is employed. A new strategy in the model selection phase is adopted and the optimal model is selected from the set of those models that satisfy both diagnostic tests and cointegration. Thus, unlike the previous literature utilizing this approach, it is ensured that a statistically reliable and cointegrated model is picked up for estimation. Estimation results based on the data for 1988-I to 2008-IV period indicate that in the short-run real exchange rate variable affects agriculture trade balance in trade with EU(15) and depreciation of Turkish Lira improves the trade balance. As for the long-run impact of the exchange rate, depreciation of domestic currency has a statistically significant negative effect on trade balance of agriculture.Article Citation - WoS: 1Citation - Scopus: 1Model Selection Uncertainties and Model Averaging in Autoregressive Time Series Models(Isoss Publ, 2012) Islam, M. Qamarul; Yazıcı, Mehmet; Yazici, Mehmet; Islam, M.Qamarul; Qamarul Islam, M.; İktisatSelecting the correct lag order is necessary in order to avoid model specification errors in autoregressive (AR) time series models. Here we explore the problem of lag order selection in such models. This study provides an in-depth but easy understanding of the model selection mechanism to the practitioners in various fields of applied research. Several interesting findings are reported and through these the pitfalls of the model selection procedures are exposed. In particular, we show that the whole exercise of model selection and subsequent statistical inference invariably depends upon unknown entities, namely the true values of parameters in the model. The model averaging technique is proposed as an alternative to the common practice of model selection and it is shown that, as a result, the properties of post-model-selection estimates substantially improve.Article Does the Incomplete Information Matter with Export Quotas?(2006) Yazıcı, MehmetThis study investigates whether or not incomplete information matters when the government adopts the export quotas in intervening in the oligopolistic export markets. Incomplete information the government has is about the unit-production cost of the domestic firm. It is shown first that quotas optimal under full information (full-information policy) result in Stackelberg outcome, the best outcome in a non-cooperative setting from the domestic firm`s point of view. When the full-information policy is implemented in the presence of incomplete information, it is found that no cost-type has an incentive to misrepresent itself as the other type. This means that full-information outcome will be achieved with incomplete information. Hence, incomplete information does not matter in the case of export quotas. This result, however, does not carry over to the case of more than one domestic firm.Article The Effect of Energy Importation from Russia on Turkey's Current Account Deficit(2019) Erkılıç, Tuna; Temiz Dinç, Dilek; Gökmen, Aytaç; Yazıcı, MehmetEnergy is a fundamental input of social and economic development of a country. Yet, some of the countries in the world are rich in terms of energy and some countries lack the necessary amount of energy they require. The Republic of Turkey is situated at the threshold of Eurasia and is close to the richest energy basins of the world in its vicinity. However, Turkey is not self-sufficient in terms of energy and in order to correspond to its increasing energy necessity, it must import energy from neighboring countries, mainly from Russia. Moreover, the aim of this study is to analyze the energy trade of Turkey with Russia and its impact on its current account deficit. In order to analyze this issue, various econometric methods are utilized in this study. With respect to this analysis, it is evident that the energy importation of Turkey from Russia leads to an increase in its current account deficit.Article Determinants of Poverty: Turkey and Multi-country Analysis(2018) Eymen Muş, Ümmü; Temiz Dinç, Dilek; Yazıcı, Mehmet; Gökmen, AytaçIn this study, the definition of poverty and the determinants of poverty are discussed in detail. After examination of the poverty situations of all income groups according to World Bank classification have been analyzed separately by the method of regression. According to the analysis conducted by the method of dynamic panel generalized least square regression, impact on current poverty from the previous year and the current growth of poverty has been observed, yet the effects of inflation on poverty are controversial. The exchange rate is not included in the regression because the two-main macroeconomic discussed determinants of poverty in the literature are used in the regression as control variables that there is multicollinearity between exchange rate, growth and inflation. This study points out that in the struggle against the poverty, the most important contribution is gained with economic growth. Since high volatility in price level and exchange rates prevents the growth, inflation and exchange rate policies assessed in the perspective of the importance of growth policy.Article Impact of exchange rate and customs uinon on trade balance at commodity level of Turkey with EU (15)(Juraj Dobrila ,University Pula, 2011) Yazıcı, Mehmet; Islam, M. QamarulThis paper investigates the short-run and long-run impact of exchange rate and customs union on the trade balance at commodity-group level of Turkey with EU (15). Bounds testing approach is employed where a new strategy in the model selection phase is odopted ensuring that optimal model is selected from those models satisfying both diagnostics and cointegration. Results indicate that in the short-run exchange rate matters in determination of trade balance of 13 commodity groups out of 21 and customs union in 8 cases. Pattern of response of trade balance to exchange rate does not suggest a J-curve effect in any of cases. As for the long-run effect, neither exchange rate nor customs union has a statistically significant effect on trade balance of any of commodity groups, suggesting that those significant short-run effects don't last into long-run