İktisat Bölümü Yayın Koleksiyonu
Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12416/402
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Article Supply Response of the Wine Industry in Turkey(Asia Life Sciences, 2011) Sakarya, Arif Orçun; Sakarya, Arif Orcun; Temiz, Dilek; Temiz, Dilek; İşletme; Uluslararası Ticaret ve FinansmanRegarding the high wine production potential; the main goal of the study is to discover whether there is a long run relationship between wine production, wine net export and demand and to display the possible contribution of latter variables on wine production in Turkey. Following the wine market overlook; related contribution is analyzed by using annual time series data for the years 1961-2005, the Johansen cointegration test and ordinary least squares method. The empirical findings have shown that, as the wine net export or the wine demand increases, wine production also increases in Turkey. Cointegration test has proved that there is a long run relationship between wine production and the other variables.Article Citation - Scopus: 2Exchange Rate and Turkish Agricultural Trade Balance With Eu (15)(2012) Yazici, M.; Yazıcı, Mehmet; Islam, M.Q.; İktisatThis paper investigates the short-run and long-run impact of exchange rate on the trade balance of Turkish Agriculture with EU (15) countries. The bounds testing approach to the cointegration and the error correction modeling is employed. A new strategy in the model selection phase is adopted and the optimal model is selected from the set of those models that satisfy both diagnostic tests and cointegration. Thus, unlike the previous literature utilizing this approach, it is ensured that a statistically reliable and cointegrated model is picked up for estimation. Estimation results based on the data for 1988-I to 2008-IV period indicate that in the short-run real exchange rate variable affects agriculture trade balance in trade with EU(15) and depreciation of Turkish Lira improves the trade balance. As for the long-run impact of the exchange rate, depreciation of domestic currency has a statistically significant negative effect on trade balance of agriculture.Article Citation - WoS: 11Citation - Scopus: 9Ppp Hypothesis and Temporary Structural Breaks(Economics Bulletin, 2017) Corakci, Aysegul; Omay, Tolga; Emirmahmutoglu, Furkan; Çorakcı, Ayşegül; Tolga, Omay; Çankaya Meslek Yüksekokulu; İktisatIn this study our aim is to explore a better testing strategy for the PPP hypothesis under a temporary structural break. For this purpose we use the exponential smooth transition (EST) function in the unit root testing framework and compare this methodology with the one that uses a Fourier function. Although the Fourier function is extensively used in the literature to test the validity of the PPP hypothesis under temporary breaks, this investigation shows that it leads to misleading results.Article Citation - WoS: 1Citation - Scopus: 1Model Selection Uncertainties and Model Averaging in Autoregressive Time Series Models(Isoss Publ, 2012) Islam, M. Qamarul; Yazıcı, Mehmet; Yazici, Mehmet; Islam, M.Qamarul; Qamarul Islam, M.; İktisatSelecting the correct lag order is necessary in order to avoid model specification errors in autoregressive (AR) time series models. Here we explore the problem of lag order selection in such models. This study provides an in-depth but easy understanding of the model selection mechanism to the practitioners in various fields of applied research. Several interesting findings are reported and through these the pitfalls of the model selection procedures are exposed. In particular, we show that the whole exercise of model selection and subsequent statistical inference invariably depends upon unknown entities, namely the true values of parameters in the model. The model averaging technique is proposed as an alternative to the common practice of model selection and it is shown that, as a result, the properties of post-model-selection estimates substantially improve.Article Ülke Risk Primi Şokunun Makroekonomik Etkileri: Türkiye Örneği(2018) Varlık, Nimet; Gebeşoğlu, FulyaÜlke risk primi şokunun makroekonomik etkileri 2005:12- 2017:3 dönemi için Yapısal Vektör Otoregresyon Modeli kullanılarak incelenmiştir. Türkiye için ülke risk primi göstergesi olarak EMBI+TR kullanılan model nominal döviz kuru sepeti, tüketici fiyatları endeksi, tüketici kredileri, sanayi üretim endeksi ve cari açık bilançosunu içermektedir. Ampirik sonuçlar ülke risk priminde gözlenen yapısal şokların Türkiye’nin açık enflasyon hedeflemesi döneminde makroekonomik değişkenlerini olumsuz yönde etkilediğini göstermektedir. EMBI+ TR göstergesindeki bir standart sapmalık şok Türk Lirasında devalüasyona, fiyat seviyesinde artışa, kredi hacminde daralmaya, sanayi üretim endeksinde düşüşe ve cari açık bilançosunda artışa yol açmaktadır. Ülke risk priminin döviz kuru ve krediler üzerindeki olumsuz etkisi diğer değişkenler üzerindeki etkisine kıyasla daha fazladır. Ayrıca ülke risk primi şokları kredi daralması yaratmak suretiyle reel ekonomide küçülmeye ve cari açık bilançosunda artışa yol açmaktadır. Varyans ayrıştırmasının bulguları ile etki tepki analizinin sonuçları tutarlı olupülke risk priminde gözlenen yapısal şokların kredi üzerindeki etkilerinin diğer değişkenlere kıyasla daha fazla olduğu sonucuna varılmıştır.Article The intermediary institutions which are preferred for manipulative trading: Evidence from an emerging market(2017) Doğanay, Mete; Aktaş, Ramazan; Somuncu, KartalThis research investigates the type of intermediary institutions chosen by the manipulators for their manipulative trading. Univariate and multivariate analyses are performed and three variables having significant effect on the manipulators’ choice of intermediary institution for their manipulative trading are found. These variables are being publicly traded, size in terms of total assets, and gross profit margin. Being publicly traded and size are positively; gross profit margin is negatively related to the manipulators’ choice of intermediary institution for their manipulative trading. Managers of the intermediary institutions and regulators should be aware of these results and regulators should scrutinize high volume transactions conducted through this type of intermediary institutions more closely.Article Plant Size, Turnover and Productivity in Malaysian Manufacturing(2010) Doğan, Ergun; Wong, Koi NyenMalaysian manufacturing has an asymmetrical structure: small and medium-sized enterprises dominate in numbers, but contribute relatively little to total output, employment, and exports as compared to their larger counterparts. In light of an increasingly competitive environment arising from globalization, a sound knowledge of turnover patterns within the sector by plant size and its potential impact on aggregate productivity growth is imperative. We find that turnover, particularly of large plants, makes a substantial contribution to overall productivity growth in manufacturing. Hence, from a policy perspective, facilitating turnover might be as important as supporting existing plants in promoting aggregate productivity growth.Article Terrorism and the Stock Market: A Case Study for Turkey Using STR Models(2014) Çorakçı, Ayşegül; Omay, TolgaSeveral attempts have been made in the literature to analyze the detrimental effects of terrorist activities on the stock market. However, in neither of these studies the effects of terrorist activities on stock returns are investigated through employing nonlinear models in spite of the fact that most financial data is shown to exhibit nonlinear behaviour. This study, therefore, aims to contribute to this growing area of research by exploring the potential nonlinear effects of terrorist activities on stock returns by employing smooth transition regression (STR) models. Our results show that terrorism has a statistically significant negative effect on the stock index when the intensity of terrorist activities passes a certain threshold level. This negative effect continues for terrorist activities below this threshold level, but becomes statistically insignificant. This study by conducting the analysis within a nonlinear framework offers important insights into the investors who want to make portfolio diversification strategies against terrorism risk.Article Is there a Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) Puzzle? New Evidence from a Nonlinear Asymmetric Panel Unit Root Test(2016) Çorakçı, AyşegülThis study re-examines the validity of the purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis for 24 OECD countries. The econometric methodology implemented not only allows for asymmetric nonlinear mean reversion within a panel context, but also corrects for the cross-sectional dependence bias frequently encountered in panel data. This feature is important because a test that ignores the presence of asymmetry and cross-sectional dependence when they are in fact present in the data would lead to misleading results. We obtain relatively stronger evidence in favor of the PPP hypothesis when compared to the other alternative panel unit root tests. However, on the whole, this support is still weak even after allowing for asymmetric nonlinear mean reversion in the real exchange rate series. Therefore, to reconcile the data with the theory further methods should be developed.Article Exchange Rate And Bilateral Trade Balance Of Turkey With EU (15) Countries(2014) Yazıcı, Mehmet; Islam, M. QamarulThis paper investigates the short-run and long-run impact of real exchange rate on the bilateral trade balance of Turkey with EU (15) countries. We’ve employed the bounds testing approach to the cointegration and the error correction modeling. Following Yazici and Islam (2011a, 2011b, 2012) and Yazici (2012), we select the optimal model from the set of those models that satisfy both diagnostic tests and cointegration. Thus, unlike the other studies, it is ensured that a statistically reliable and cointegrated model is picked up for estimation. Based on the quarterly data for 1982-I to 2001-IV period, estimation results indicate no evidence of J-curve in the short run in any of Turkey’s bilateral trade with EU(15) countries. In the long run, however, real depreciation of Turkish Lira improves the trade balance of Turkey with Austria, Denmark, France, Ireland, Italy, Sweden and UK.