İktisat Bölümü Yayın Koleksiyonu

Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12416/402

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  • Book Part
    Citation - Scopus: 4
    Inflation and Growth: an Empirical Study for the Comparison of the Level and the Variability Effects
    (Nova Science Publishers, Inc., 2006) Arin, K.P.; Omay, Tolga; Omay, T.; Çankaya Meslek Yüksekokulu
    This paper analyzes the interaction between the inflation and growth within the Mankiw-Romer-Weil (1992) framework. Our results indicate that the inflation level has a significant negative effect on output in advanced capitalist economies, whereas inflation variability has a negative and significant effect on output in the long-run for all sub-samples. Our results also show that the variability effects are larger in terms of significance. © 2006 Nova Science Publishers, Inc. All rights reserved.
  • Article
    Citation - Scopus: 2
    Exchange Rate and Turkish Agricultural Trade Balance With Eu (15)
    (2012) Yazici, M.; Yazıcı, Mehmet; Islam, M.Q.; İktisat
    This paper investigates the short-run and long-run impact of exchange rate on the trade balance of Turkish Agriculture with EU (15) countries. The bounds testing approach to the cointegration and the error correction modeling is employed. A new strategy in the model selection phase is adopted and the optimal model is selected from the set of those models that satisfy both diagnostic tests and cointegration. Thus, unlike the previous literature utilizing this approach, it is ensured that a statistically reliable and cointegrated model is picked up for estimation. Estimation results based on the data for 1988-I to 2008-IV period indicate that in the short-run real exchange rate variable affects agriculture trade balance in trade with EU(15) and depreciation of Turkish Lira improves the trade balance. As for the long-run impact of the exchange rate, depreciation of domestic currency has a statistically significant negative effect on trade balance of agriculture.
  • Article
    Citation - WoS: 11
    Citation - Scopus: 9
    Ppp Hypothesis and Temporary Structural Breaks
    (Economics Bulletin, 2017) Corakci, Aysegul; Omay, Tolga; Emirmahmutoglu, Furkan; Çorakcı, Ayşegül; Tolga, Omay; Çankaya Meslek Yüksekokulu; İktisat
    In this study our aim is to explore a better testing strategy for the PPP hypothesis under a temporary structural break. For this purpose we use the exponential smooth transition (EST) function in the unit root testing framework and compare this methodology with the one that uses a Fourier function. Although the Fourier function is extensively used in the literature to test the validity of the PPP hypothesis under temporary breaks, this investigation shows that it leads to misleading results.
  • Article
    Citation - WoS: 1
    Citation - Scopus: 1
    Model Selection Uncertainties and Model Averaging in Autoregressive Time Series Models
    (Isoss Publ, 2012) Islam, M. Qamarul; Yazıcı, Mehmet; Yazici, Mehmet; Islam, M.Qamarul; Qamarul Islam, M.; İktisat
    Selecting the correct lag order is necessary in order to avoid model specification errors in autoregressive (AR) time series models. Here we explore the problem of lag order selection in such models. This study provides an in-depth but easy understanding of the model selection mechanism to the practitioners in various fields of applied research. Several interesting findings are reported and through these the pitfalls of the model selection procedures are exposed. In particular, we show that the whole exercise of model selection and subsequent statistical inference invariably depends upon unknown entities, namely the true values of parameters in the model. The model averaging technique is proposed as an alternative to the common practice of model selection and it is shown that, as a result, the properties of post-model-selection estimates substantially improve.
  • Article
    Multiple linear regression model under nonnormality
    (Taylor & Francis Inc, 2004) Islam, M. Qamarul; Tiku, Moti L.
    We consider multiple linear regression models under nonnormality. We derive modified maximum likelihood estimators (MMLEs) of the parameters and show that they are efficient and robust. We show that the least squares esimators are considerably less efficient. We compare the efficiencies of the MMLEs and the M estimators for symmetric distributions and show that, for plausible alternatives to an assumed distribution, the former are more efficient. We provide real-life examples.
  • Article
    Citation - WoS: 9
    Citation - Scopus: 9
    Hysteresis and Stochastic Convergence in Eurozone Unemployment Rates: Evidence From Panel Unit Roots With Smooth Breaks and Asymmetric Dynamics
    (inst Badan Gospodarczych, 2022) Omay, Tolga; Hasanov, Mubariz; Corakci, Aysegul
    Research background: Studying the dynamic characteristics of unemployment rate is crucial for both economic theory and macroeconomic policies. Despite numerous research, the empirical evidence about stochastic behaviour of the unemployment rate remains disputable. It has been widely agreed that most economic variables, including unemployment rates, are characterized by both structural breaks and nonlinearities. However, a little work is done to examine both features simultaneously. Purpose of the article: In this paper, we analyse the stationarity properties of unemployment rates of Euro area member countries. Also, we aim to test stochastic convergence of unemployment rates among member countries. Our empirical procedures explicitly allow for simultaneous gradual breaks and nonlinearities in the series. Methods: This paper develops a new unit root test procedure for panel data, allowing for both gradual structural breaks and asymmetric adjustment towards equilibrium. We carry out Monte Carlo simulations to examine small sample performance of the proposed test procedure and compare it to the existing test procedures. We apply the newly proposed test to examine the stochastic properties of the unemployment rates of Euro-member countries as well as relative unemployment rates vis-a-vis the Eurozone unemployment rate. Findings & value added: We find that the newly developed test procedure outperforms existing tests in highly nonlinear settings. Also, these tests reject the null hypothesis of unit root in more cases when compared to the existing tests. We find stationarity in the series only after allowing for structural breaks in the data generating process. Allowing for nonlinear and asymmetric adjustment in addition to gradual breaks provides evidence of stationarity in more cases. Furthermore, our results suggest that relative unemployment rate series are stationary, providing evidence in favour of stochastic convergence in unemployment rates. Overall, our results imply a limited room for coordinated economic policy to fight unemployment in the Eurozone.
  • Article
    Does the Incomplete Information Matter with Export Quotas?
    (2006) Yazıcı, Mehmet
    This study investigates whether or not incomplete information matters when the government adopts the export quotas in intervening in the oligopolistic export markets. Incomplete information the government has is about the unit-production cost of the domestic firm. It is shown first that quotas optimal under full information (full-information policy) result in Stackelberg outcome, the best outcome in a non-cooperative setting from the domestic firm`s point of view. When the full-information policy is implemented in the presence of incomplete information, it is found that no cost-type has an incentive to misrepresent itself as the other type. This means that full-information outcome will be achieved with incomplete information. Hence, incomplete information does not matter in the case of export quotas. This result, however, does not carry over to the case of more than one domestic firm.
  • Book Part
    Citation - Scopus: 8
    Bitcoin Market Price Analysis and an Empirical Comparison With Main Currencies, Commodities, Securities and Altcoins
    (Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH, 2019) Dinçergök, B.; Haşlak, Ş.; Pirgaip, B.
    The purpose of this study is to analyze Bitcoin (BTC) market prices and to answer the question of whether there is a relationship between BTC and other asset prices, where other assets include currencies, commodities, securities and altcoins. In the empirical part, we evaluate the lead-lag relationships among each type of asset. Consequently, we compare BTC with major currencies and stock exchanges of the U.S., the EU, the U.K. and Japan (USD-SPX, EUR-DAX, GBP-FTSE and JPY-NIK), with currencies and stock exchanges of the U.S., the U.K., Russia, Venezuela and China where BTC is actively traded (USD-SPX, GBP-FTSE, RUB-MOEX, VEF-IBVC and YUAN-SSCE), with major commodities (GOLD and OIL) and with major altcoins (ETH, XRP and LTC) on a daily basis for the period spanning from 2010.07 to 2018.12. We employ Johansen co-integration, Granger causality, impulse response functions and forecast error variance decomposition analyses in our study. Our results show that BTC does not have a long-run relationship with any asset type, but that it has a short-run relationship with gold and especially altcoins, which are both significant and bidirectional. While BTC and altcoins are closely interrelated with each other, BTC price variation is mostly borne by its own prices in all cases. © Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2019.
  • Article
    The Journal Forum: 1954-1960 in Turkey
    (Common Ground Research Networks, 2007) Cakmak, D.
    In the ten years (1950-1960) of Democrat Party rule in Turkey, intellectuals were obliged to create some alternative centers of power, particularly in view of government's oppressive policies towards the universities and the press. Forum Journal constituted one such center of criticism. Forum's writers -most of whom were educated in the republican regime- opposed the DP's pragmatic approach to politics and wanted to center political life on reason and to eliminate conservative attitudes. Most of the writers were from the Faculty of Political Science in Ankara University. Forum started to be published in April 1954. Forum did not aim at a struggle to acquire political power. Forum had an influence on almost the whole of the Turkish intelligentsia in the years 1954-1960. The institutions and ideas suggested by Forum were realized to a large extent with the Constitution accepted after the military intervention in the year 1960. For example, the establishment of a second chamber of the legislative assmebly -the Senate-, the constitutional court, the state planning organization, autonomous universities, independence of judges, free press, granting rights to strike and collective negotiations to workers, free opposition, the principal of social equality..etc that had all been discussed in the pages of Forum, found place in the Constitution 1961. So it is possible to claim that Forum Journal with its great contribution for the reconsolidation of the democratic regime demonstrated the higly significant role in Turkish political life. Forum writers treated the military intervention in 27 May 1960 as the liberator of Turkish democracy although it caused a temporary break in the democratic regime. This study which is based on the evaluation of Forum Journal will be a serious contribution considering the journal's support in military intervention of 1960 in Turkish political life. © Common Ground, Diren Cakmak, All Rights Reserved.
  • Article
    Private Charity and Cooperation Vs. Non-Cooperation
    (2006) Yazici, M.
    This study analyzes cooperative and non-cooperative outcomes in the context of private charity and compares them on efficiency grounds. Analysis is conducted in a model economy where there are two rich individuals and one poor and the rich care about the well-being of the poor. The results of the analysis suggest that, when making donations to the poor, the rich should get together and act cooperatively instead of behaving independently. Given the fact that there are many donors in reality and therefore it is difficult for them to get together for cooperation, this result implies a role for government to provide a mechanism for cooperation and justifies the support of the governments for charity organizations. © 2006 Asian Network for Scientific Information.