Makine Mühendisliği Bölümü Yayın Koleksiyonu
Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12416/263
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Article Citation - WoS: 5Citation - Scopus: 5Ann and Anfis Performance Prediction Models for Francis Type Turbines(Turkish Soc thermal Sciences Technology, 2020) Aylı, Ülkü Ece; Ayli, Ece; Ulucak, Oguzhan; Makine MühendisliğiTurbines can be operated under partial loading conditions due to the seasonal precipitation fluctuations and due to the needed electrical demand over time. According to this partial working need, designers generate hill chart diagrams to observe the system behavior under different flow rates and head values. In order to generate a hill chart, several numerical or experimental studies have been performed at different guide vane openings and head values which are very time consuming and expensive. In this study, the efficiency prediction of Francis turbines has been performed with ANN and ANFIS methods under different operating conditions and compared with simulation results. The obtained results indicate that it is possible to obtain a hill chart using ANFIS method instead of a costly experimental or numerical tests. ANN and ANFIS parameters which effect the output, have been optimized with trying 100 different cases. 75% of the numerical data set is used for training and 25 % is used for validation as testing data. To asses and compare the performance of multiple ANN and ANFIS models several statistical indicators have been used. Insight to the performance evaluation, it is seen that ANFIS can predict the efficiency distribution with higher accuracy than the ANN model. The developed ANFIS model predicts the efficiency with 1.41% mean average percentage error and 0.999 R-2 value. To the best of the author's knowledge, this is the first study in the literature that ANN and ANFIS are used in order to predict the efficiency distribution of the turbines at different loading conditions.Article Citation - WoS: 13Citation - Scopus: 14A Novel Cfd-Ann Approach for Plunger Valve Optimization: Cost-Effective Performance Enhancement(Elsevier Sci Ltd, 2024) Kaak, Abdul Rahman Sabra; Celebiog, Kutay; Bozkus, Zafer; Ulucak, Oguzhan; Ayli, Ece; Çelebioğlu, KutayThis paper introduces a novel computational fluid dynamics-artificial neural network (CFD-ANN) approach that has been devised to enhance the efficiency of plunger valves. The primary emphasis of this research is to achieve an optimal equilibrium between hydraulic flow and geometric configuration. This study is a novel contribution to the field as it explores the flow dynamics of plunger valves using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) and proposes a unique methodology by incorporating Machine Learning (ML) for performance forecasting. An artificial neural network (ANN) architecture was developed using a thorough comprehension of flow physics and the impact of geometric parameters acquired through computational fluid dynamics (CFD). Using optimization, the primary aspects of the Artificial Neural Network (ANN), including the learning algorithm and the number of hidden layers, have been modified. This refinement has resulted in the development of an architecture exhibiting a remarkably high R2 value of 0.987. This architectural design was employed to optimize the plunger valve. By utilizing Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), a comprehensive analysis comprising 1000 distinct configurations was effectively performed, resulting in a significant reduction in time expenditure compared to relying on Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD). The result was a refined arrangement that achieved maximum head loss, subsequently verified using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations, resulting in a minimal discrepancy of 2.66%. The efficacy of artificial neural networks (ANN) becomes apparent due to their notable cost-efficiency, along with their capacity to produce outcomes that are arduous and expensive to get through conventional optimization research utilizing computational fluid dynamics (CFD).Article Citation - WoS: 1Citation - Scopus: 1Prediction of the Onset of Shear Localization Based on Machine Learning(Cambridge Univ Press, 2023) Ayli, Ece; Ulucak, Oguzhan; Ugurer, Doruk; Akar, Samet; Ayll, EcePredicting the onset of shear localization is among the most challenging problems in machining. This phenomenon affects the process outputs, such as machining forces, surface quality, and machined part tolerances. To predict this phenomenon, analytical, experimental, and numerical methods (especially finite element analysis) are widely used. However, the limitations of each method hinder their industrial applications, demanding a reliable and time-saving approach to predict shear localization onset. Additionally, since this phenomenon largely depends on the type and parameters of the constitutive material model, any change in these parameters requires a new set of simulations, which puts further restrictions on the application of finite element modeling. This study aims to overcome the computational efficiency of the finite element method to predict the onset of shear localization when machining Ti6Al4V using machine learning methods. The obtained results demonstrate that the FCM (fuzzy c-means) clustering ANFIS (adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system) has given better results in both training and testing when it is compared to the ANN (artificial neural network) architecture with an R-2 of 0.9981. Regarding this, the FCM-ANFIS is a good candidate to calculate the critical cutting speed. To the best of the authors' knowledge, this is the first study in the literature that uses a machine learning tool to predict shear localization.Article Citation - WoS: 4Citation - Scopus: 4Critical Decision Making for Rehabilitation of Hydroelectric Power Plants(Taylor & Francis inc, 2023) Westerman, Jerry; Celebioglu, Kutay; Ayli, Ece; Ulucak, Oguzhan; Aradag, SelinDue to their diminishing performance, reliability, and maintenance requirements, there has been a rise in the demand for the restoration and renovation of old hydroelectric power facilities in recent decades. Prior to initiating a rehabilitation program, it is crucial to establish a comprehensive understanding of the power plant's current state. Failure to do so may result in unnecessary expenses with minimal or no improvements. This article presents a systematic rehabilitation methodology specifically tailored for Francis turbines, encompassing a methodological approach for condition assessment, performance testing, and evaluation of rehabilitation potential using site measurements and CFD analysis, and a comprehensive decision-making process. To evaluate the off-design performance of the turbines, a series of simulations are conducted for 40 different flow rate and head combinations, generating a hill chart for comprehensive evaluation. Various parameters that significantly impact the critical decision-making process are thoroughly investigated. The validity of the reverse engineering-based CFD methodology is verified, demonstrating a minor difference of 0.41% and 0.40% in efficiency and power, respectively, between the RE runner and actual runner CFD results. The optimal efficiency point is determined at a flow rate of 35.035 m(3)/s, achieving an efficiency of 94.07%, while the design point exhibits an efficiency of 93.27% with a flow rate of 38.6 m(3)/s. Cavitation is observed in the turbine runner, occupying 27% of the blade suction area at 110% loading. The developed rehabilitation methodology equips decision-makers with essential information to prioritize key issues and determine whether a full-scale or component-based rehabilitation program is necessary. By following this systematic approach, hydroelectric power plants can efficiently address the challenges associated with aging Francis turbines and optimize their rehabilitation efforts.