Uluslararası Ticaret Bölümü Yayın Koleksiyonu
Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12416/401
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Article Citation - WoS: 8Citation - Scopus: 9The Relationship Between Inflation, Output Growth, and Their Uncertainties: Nonlinear Multivariate Garch-M Evidence(Economics Bulletin, 2011) Omay, Tolga; Omay, Tolga; Çankaya Meslek YüksekokuluIn this paper, we propose a nonlinear multivariate GARCH-M model. We have illustrated the actual modelling by applying the models to inflation and output growth variables and found that the effects of real and nominal uncertainties are regime-dependent.Book Part Citation - Scopus: 1The Relationship Between Inflation, Output Growth, and Inflation Uncertainty: Panel Data Evidence From Selected Industrial Countries(Nova Science Publishers, Inc., 2012) Omay, T.; Omay, Tolga; Eruygur, A.; Çankaya Meslek YüksekokuluIn this chapter, we have examined the causal relationships among the inflation rate, output growth rate, and inflation uncertainty for a panel of industrialized countries. For this purpose, we have estimated a PANEL-GARCH model for inflation rate and performed Panel-causality tests using conditional standard deviations of inflation to proxy nominal uncertainty. The relationships among inflation, output growth, and inflation uncertainty have been investigated extensively in the empirical literature for developed countries (e.g., Grier and Perry 1998; Davis and Kanago, 2000; Fountas et al. 2006; Fountas and Karanasos 2007). Our main contribution is to extend the analysis conducted by these studies to a group of developed countries using panel data techniques. The panel Granger test results have showed that the Friedman-Ball hypothesis is not supported by data when applied to the group of countries included in this chapter. This has led us to conclude that a threshold level of inflation does exist before the Friedman- Ball hypothesis applies. On the other hand, the reported test results have provided empirical support for the Cukierman-Meltzer (1986) hypothesis that inflation uncertainty raises the inflation rate in the group of industrialized countries under investigation. Our findings regarding the causal relationship between inflation uncertainty and output growth report a bidirectional relationship between these two variables. While output growth leads to an increase in inflation uncertainty at first lag, this effect is found to be insignificant at fourth lags. However, inflation uncertainty is found to be detrimental for real growth uniformly across the lags considered. Finally, a negative bidirectional causal relation was detected between output growth and inflation. © 2012 by Nova Science Publishers, Inc. All rights reserved.Article Citation - Scopus: 3The Relationship Between Output Growth and Inflation: Evidence From Turkey(2010) Omay, T.; Omay, Tolga; Aluftekin, N.; Karadagli, E.C.; Çankaya Meslek YüksekokuluIn this study, a bi-variate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticty model is used in order to investigate the Granger causality relationships between output growth, inflation rate and their uncertainties. Our test results show that the existence of Granger-causality is observed from nominal uncertainty to inflation, from nominal uncertainty to real uncertainty, from output growth to real uncertainty, from output growth to nominal uncertainty and from inflation to nominal uncertainty. These findings prove that theoretical predictions of Cuikerman and Meltzer (1986), Okun (1971) and Friedman (1977) are valid for the period 1986, 6 - 2007, 1 for Turkey. On the other hand, 'Short-run Phillips Curve' and 'Taylor Effect' have proven empirically to be invalid for Turkey for this sample period. Moreover, we deduce that Turkish inflation is affected by the output growth through the nominal uncertainty channel.Article Citation - WoS: 18Citation - Scopus: 21Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Re-Examining the Case of Turkey(Elsevier, 2008) Omay, Tolga; Hasanov, MuebarizThis paper investigates possible asymmetries in the monetary policy reaction function of the Central Bank of Republic of Turkey over the business cycles. It is found that the bank reacted more aggressively towards output stabilisation during recessions than expansions. The empirical evidence suggests that the inflation targeting policy of the Turkish Central Bank was accommodative rather than stabilising. Furthermore, it is found that although the Central Bank of Republic of Turkey responded to foreign reserves, real exchange rates and short-term capital inflows both in expansion and recession periods, the bank targeted money growth, budget deficits, and net foreign assets only in expansion periods. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.