Analysis of Condensation Risk in a Wall Section in the Context of Climate Change Scenarios

Abstract

The effects of climate change can be seen in many areas. Although there are many causes of climate change (changes in solar radiation, differences in the Earth’s orbit, continental shifts and changes in the atmosphere), one of the most noticeable causes in the 21st century is anthropogenic effects. One area where these impacts can be seen is the construction sector in buildings and building façades. Climate change will change assumptions about façade design in the coming decades. For this reason, it is important to develop climate change projections for existing and new buildings. For this purpose, the literature has three basic climate models. Therefore, the aim of this study is to compare the condensation risk for a wall section in a city with a humid-temperate climate (Zonguldak, Turkey) using HadGEM, MPI and GFDL climate models according to RCP8.5 scenario data for the historical period 2015 and the future year 2081. Within the scope of the study, the average temperatures and relative humidity values were obtained from GDM (General Directorate of Meteorology) by choosing 2081 and 2015, which are frequently used in climate change studies based on the literature. In the method, the projection results for the historical and future periods were compared and became the basis for the next stage. In the next step, based on the literature, the condensation control in the wall section was compared for the past and future using the Glaser method, which is frequently used in condensation control in wall sections and included in the TS 825 standard created for Turkey, which corresponds to EN ISO 13788 and DIN 4108 standards. According to the results, the humidity and temperature fluctuations in the future period and increase in averages are important problems that need to be addressed in detail in façade design and the impact of condensation risk. Therefore, according to the condensation control calculations made in the wall section detail, condensation risk occurs in the future period. Consequently, assumptions in façade design will need to change for existing and future buildings to accommodate condensation risk. © 2024 by authors, all rights reserved.