How to Manage the Mortgage Credit Risk in Turkey? Can Dual-indexed Mortgages be a Remedy?

Abstract

A market-oriented housing finance system has been under discussion in Turkey recently. In this article we analyze different types of mortgages that have been used in developed and developing countries to select the one that is most appropriate for Turkey-one which minimizes risks for both lenders and borrowers. Each type of mortgage presents different risks to borrowers and lenders. After taking into consideration the economic history of Turkey, we conclude that the most appropriate mortgage for Turkey that minimizes risk is the dual-indexed mortgage model. We test this model by using data from the most volatile period of the Turkish economy, applying historical simulation and Monte-Carlo simulation. We find that, using this model; the total loan is paid off in a reasonable period without causing substantial difficulty for lenders and borrowers. Analyses confirm that borrowers and lenders are exposed to minimum risk if this type of mortgage is originated in Turkey.