Forecasting the Methane Yield of a Commercial-Scale Anaerobic Digestor Based on the Biomethane Potential of Feedstocks

Abstract

With rising energy demand and the need for sustainable waste treatment, anaerobic digestion (AD) has emerged as a key technology for converting organic residues into renewable energy. However, predicting methane yield in full-scale facilities remains challenging due to the complexity of AD processes, the variability of feedstocks, and the impracticality of frequent biochemical methane potential (BMP) testing. In this study, we developed a simple, data-driven approach to forecast methane production in a commercial-scale digester co-digesting manure and food waste. The model employs weekly cumulative BMP of feedstock mixtures, calculated from literature values, as the explanatory variable. The model achieved an R2 of 0.70 and a forecast mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 7.4, indicating its potential for full-scale AD prediction. Importantly, the analysis revealed a long-run equilibrium between BMP and methane yield, with deviations corrected within roughly one month-closely matching the system's hydraulic retention time. These findings demonstrate that literature-based BMP values can be used to reliably predict methane yield in operating AD systems, offering a low-cost and scalable tool to support decision-making in waste management and biogas plant operations.