Browsing by Author "İlalan, Deniz"

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Can Stock Price Manipulation be Prevented by Granting More Freedom to Manipulators
(2015) İlalan, Deniz
Allen and Gale (1992) construct a model to show that stock price manipulation is possible. The time structure of their model allows manipulators to pretend as “informed” traders, so that the local investors cannot distinguish what type of entrant they are facing. When the type of the entrant becomes known to the local investors it is already too late to make any use of that information. This paper shows an institution can be designed in a very natural fashion which induces different behaviors on the part of manipulators and “informed” traders at the beginning of the process. The institution designed roughly consists of entitling the entrants to resell stocks at a later date as well if they wish to do so. As this reasoning is also accessible to manipulators, the designed institution deters them from entering the market. Regarding the informed traders, their expected gain from entering the stock market may or may not be positive contingent on the basic parameters of the model. There are cases, however, when there is an improvement in the expected total gain of the local investors.
Determination of the Best Simple Moving Average By Stochastic Processes
(2017) İlalan, Deniz
In this study, we consider one of the most popular technical indicators and try to determine the best fitting simple moving average to a given data. Here we utilize from a general mean reverting stochastic process where the mean is time dependent. We propose an identification algorithm which mainly concentrates on the normality of the residual terms after the data is demeaned from simple moving average and also provide evidence that our algorithm works quite well for determination of the “best” simple moving average.
Doğrusal Olmayan Birim Kök Testi İle Bist 100 Endeksi Üzerine Ampirik Bir Çalışma
(2018) İlalan, Deniz
Bu çalışmada Borsa İstanbul 100 endeksinin etkinliği sınanmaktadır. En sık kullanılandoğrusal ve yapısal kırılmalı birim kök testleri elimizdeki zaman serisinin durağan olmadığınıyani başka bir deyişle birim kökün varlığını desteklerken Kapatenios, Snell ve Shin’in geliştirmişolduğu doğrusal olmayan birim kök testi ise bunun aksini iddia etmektedir. Bu bağlamdabelirli dönemlerde doğrusal olmayan bir yapının varlığı söz konusudur. Bu bulgu araştırmacıaçısından veride gereksiz yere fark alınmasının önüne geçeceği gibi yatırımcı açısından daendeksin hareketini analiz etmede faydalı olacaktır
Modeling Correlation Structure for Collateralized Debt Obligations
(2015) İlalan, Deniz
Pricing complex financial derivatives such as collateralized debt obligations (CDO) is considered as the main reason triggering the 2008 financial crisis. The correlation structure related to the credit risks involved in a portfolio for pricing issues have been tried to overcome via a Gaussian copula framework first introduced by David Li (2000). This approach regards the correlation among the credit risks as normally distributed (tied with a Gaussian copula framework), enabling us to derive analytical solutions. However, despite its simplicity, this approach is far from reality, which caused mispricing of the tranches of CDOs. This phenomenon is called the correlation smile. This paper takes the correlation smile issue by considering a Levy copula framework. When this is introduced to pricing equations, one can see that the correlation smile is “corrected”. Thus, a more accurate model of pricing the above-mentioned tranches is introduced.
Nonlinearity of Turkish Credit Default Swap Spreads
(2018) İlalan, Deniz
Bu çalışmada araştırmacı ve yatırımcılar için önemli gösterge niteliği taşıyan durağanlık kavramı Türk Kredi Temerrüt Takası (KTT) primleri özelinde incelenmiştir. Verimiz için her ne kadar en çok kullanılan doğrusal birim kök testi olan Dickey Fuller (ADF) birim kökün varlığının reddedemezken, doğrusal olmayan Kapatenios, Snell ve Shin (KSS) ve Sollis testleri yumuşak geçişli bir durağanlık saptamışlardır. Ayrıca, bu yumuşak geçişin asimetrik bir yapıda olduğu bulgularımız arasındadır. KTT primlerinin dinamiklerini anlama öngörülebilirlik ve modellemeyi güçlendireceğinden araştırmacılara ADF testi beraberinde KSS ve Sollis testlerini uygulamalarını da önermekteyiz.
The Impact of Fed Policy Announcements on Emerging Stock Markets: Evidence from Borsa Istanbul
(2017) Akdoğan, Ece C.; İlalan, Deniz
This paper aims to understand the impact of US nonfarm payroll announcements on emerging stock markets through concentrating on the Turkish Stock Exchange: BIST 100. We not only investigate the impact of each of the three components of the nonfarm payroll data for the whole period under consideration, but also look for possible differences among four sub-periods. A comparative analysis leads us to conclude that it is not the nonfarm payroll which significantly affect BIST 100, but the fact that it is regarded as an important indicator to foresee Fed’s policy actions that can alter the capital flows.